Abstract
Background
Age-related hearing loss (ARHL) is an increasing health concern in South Asia, driven by an aging population. This study forecasts trends in prevalence and Years Lived with Disability (YLD) for ARHL in South Asia from 2022 to 2031 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.
Methods
We used ARIMA models (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) to project age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and YLD from 1990 to 2021, with projections for 2022–2031. We analyzed trends across age groups, gender, and countries including India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Empirical Annual Percentage Changes (EAPC) were calculated to understand long-term shifts in prevalence and disability.
Results
By 2031, age-standardized prevalence rates for ARHL are projected to decrease slightly from 19,017 per 100,000 in 2021 to 18,606 per 100,000. However, the total number of prevalent cases will increase significantly from 322.9 million to 409 million. Prevalence in males will rise from 171 million to 222 million, and in females from 151 million to 200 million. The total YLD will increase from 9.29 million to 11.33 million. Significant increases in prevalent cases are observed in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, with India contributing the largest burden, rising from 253 million in 2021 to 321 million by 2031.
Conclusion
While age-standardized rates for ARHL slightly decline, the total burden will grow significantly, especially in India and Pakistan, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted public health interventions, particularly for older age groups.
Keywords:
Age-related hearing loss, prevalence, YLD, age groups, ARIMA, South AsiaReferences
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Copyright (c) 2025 Shubham Chauhan, Shilpa DM, Vighnesh Devulapalli, Shweta Pattnaik
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