Abstract
Background: Nutritional deficiencies are a significant public health issue among reproductive-age women in India, despite numerous interventions. This study aims to quantify trends and predict future patterns of these deficiencies from 1990 to 2021 using sophisticated Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and ARIMA models.
Methods: Utilizing secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we applied age-standardized rates for an in-depth analysis. The approach included EAPC, joinpoint regression analysis and ARIMA forecasting to identify trends and anticipate future scenarios of nutritional deficiencies among reproductive-age women in India.
Results: Our findings show a notable overall decline in the incidence of nutritional deficiencies, with an EAPC of -3.07% (95% CI: -3.25% to -2.89%). APC analysis revealed a significant decreasing trend with a segment-specific APC of -2.08% (95% CI: -2.19% to -1.97%). ARIMA projections indicate a continued reduction in incidence rates, forecasting a drop to 4,162.75 per 100,000 by 2030 (95% CI: 3,028.81–5,296.69).
Conclusion: The results underscore the impact of ongoing public health initiatives and highlight the need for sustained policy efforts and resource allocation to further mitigate nutritional deficiencies in reproductive-age women in India.
Keywords:
Nutritional deficiencies, women of reproductive age, India, Global Burden of Disease, ARIMA, Sustainable Development GoalsReferences
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Copyright (c) 2025 Ashutosh Jena, Jayalakshmi Rajeev, Divjot Singh, Shilpa DM, Priyanka Singla
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